[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 June 06

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z JUNE 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 28 JUNE - 30 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jun:  79/19


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Jun             29 Jun             30 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20





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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 27 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11112111
      Darwin               4   11111122
      Learmonth            3   11012111
      Culgoora             2   01011111
      Camden               7   22222222
      Canberra             3   01112111
      Hobart               3   01112111
      Casey(Ant)           5   12112212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jun : 
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              3   1000 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Jun    22    active 
29 Jun    16    active 
30 Jun    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Disturbed geomagnetic conditions expected during the 
forecast period. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
29 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
30 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Jun    22

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Enhanced by 120% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Jun    20    Near predicted monthly values 
29 Jun    10    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
30 Jun    15    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jun
Speed: 278 km/sec  Density:    2.5 p/cc  Temp:    10600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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