[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 June 06

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z JUNE 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 27 JUNE - 29 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jun:  76/14


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Jun             28 Jun             29 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    78/17              78/17              78/17





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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 26 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100101
      Darwin               2   11110101
      Learmonth            0   11000000
      Culgoora             1   01100001
      Camden               7   32112222
      Canberra             0   00000001
      Hobart               0   10000000
      Casey(Ant)           2   11100111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jun : 
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   2101 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Jun     4    Quiet 
28 Jun    19    active 
29 Jun    13    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Moderately disturbed conditions expected during forecast 
period, isolated minor storm periods may be experienced. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
29 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Jun    17

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
     Depressed by 15% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Depressed by 15% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Enhanced by 85% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Jun    25    Near predicted monthly values 
28 Jun    15    Near predicted monthly values 
29 Jun    15    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.60E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jun
Speed: 305 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:    25400 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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