[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 June 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z JUNE 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 30 JUNE - 02 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jun:  86/29


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Jun             01 Jul             02 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              90/34              90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity should remain at low levels next three 
days. Solar wind parameters declined over the second half of 
the UT day as the currently geoeffective coronal hole rotates 
towards the west limb. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 29 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   23223222
      Darwin               8   23222222
      Learmonth           11   23233232
      Culgoora             8   23123221
      Camden              10   32223322
      Canberra             8   22223321
      Hobart               7   22123311
      Casey(Ant)          13   33333232
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jun : 
      Canberra            22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            27   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              37   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             18   3244 4233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
01 Jul     5    Quiet 
02 Jul     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Solar wind speed reached a peak of 600 km/s in the first 
half of the UT day, then declined steadily towards 500 km/s at 
the time of report issue. The Bz component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field remained mostly neutral resulting in quieter than 
forecast geomagnetic conditions. Expect mostly quiet conditions 
next three days, with a chance of unsettled intervals day one. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
01 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Expect mostly normal HF conditions for the next three 
days. Possible periods of disturbance at high latitudes day one. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Jun    20

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by up to 70% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Jun    20    Near predicted monthly values 
01 Jul    20    Near predicted monthly values 
02 Jul    20    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain normal in the Aus/NZ 
regions for the next three days. Possible disturbances Antarctic 
region mainly day one. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jun
Speed: 477 km/sec  Density:    4.3 p/cc  Temp:   160000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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