[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 June 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z JUNE 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 17 JUNE - 19 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jun:  75/13


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Jun             18 Jun             19 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              80/20              80/20

COMMENT: Expect solar activity to be very low for the next three 
days. SOHO ACE shows the solar wind steadily decreasing to 510 
km/s as the coronal hole moves from it geoeffective location. 
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field flucuated 
between +/- 5 nT and is presently -2 nT. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 16 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22222222
      Darwin               6   22222121
      Learmonth            7   22222132
      Culgoora             6   22212222
      Camden               9   32222223
      Canberra             8   23222222
      Hobart               7   22312222
      Casey(Ant)          11   33321233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jun : 
      Canberra            51   (Unsettled)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              53   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             28   2455 3334     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
18 Jun     6    Quiet 
19 Jun     6    Quiet 

COMMENT: Expect the geomagnetic activity to be unsettled to quiet 
over the next three days as coronal hole moves westward. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
18 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Expect normal HF conditions for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Jun    23

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values. 

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Jun    20    near predicted monthly values 
18 Jun    18    near predicted monthly values 
19 Jun    16    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain normal in the Aus/NZ 
regions for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A9.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jun
Speed: 566 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:   373000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends 
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers. 
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"