[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 June 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z JUNE 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 16 JUNE - 18 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jun:  76/14


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Jun             17 Jun             18 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              80/20
COMMENT: Expect solar activity to be very low for the next three 
days. Region 10892 unexpectantly produced two C-class flares 
yesterday. This region has decayed as it rotated across the solar 
disk and is not expected to continue producing more C-class flares 
as it rotates around the west limb. SOHO ACE shows the solar 
wind steadily increasing to 600 km/s due to a small coronal hole 
moving into a geoeffective position. Expect the solar wind to 
steadily decrease as the coronal hole moves westward. The interplanetary 
magnetic field has fluctuated between -/+ 10 nT thoughout yesterday 
and it appears to be settling back to neutral. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jun: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 15 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region      16   33344322
      Darwin              14   33334322
      Learmonth           20   23445323
      Culgoora            17   23345322
      Camden              17   33344233
      Canberra            21   23455322
      Hobart              20   22455322
      Casey(Ant)          17   44333323
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jun : 
      Canberra            46   (Unsettled)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            43   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              51   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   2111 1223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
17 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
18 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was quiet increasing to active 
due to coronal hole effects yesterday. Expect the geomagnetic 
activity to decrease to unsettled to quiet over the next three 
days as coronal hole moves westward. 
A weak (20nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data 
at 1414UT on 15 Jun. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
17 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
18 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal at low and mid latitudes 
yesterday with isolated cases of sporadic E at low latitudes. 
High latitude ranged from normal to periods of poor conditions 
with cases of sporadic E and spread F due to geomagnetic activty. 
Expect conditions to improve over the next three days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Jun    28

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Jun    20    Near predicted monthly values 
17 Jun    18    Near predicted monthly values 
18 Jun    16    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal in 
most parts of the Aus/NZ regions for the next three days with 
some possibility of minor depressions in the Southern Aus/NZ 
regions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+08 (high fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jun
Speed: 378 km/sec  Density:    5.1 p/cc  Temp:    43900 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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