[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 June 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 15 09:41:49 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z JUNE 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 15 JUNE - 17 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jun: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jun 16 Jun 17 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low today as well.
Region 892(S07W71) produced two low B-class flares. The
solar wind speed remained around 360 km/s until 0500UT
and then gradually increased to approximately 540 km/s
by the time of this report (around 2300UT). The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained
close to the normal value until around 1700UT and then
showed minor to moderate fluctuations on both sides of the
normal value during the rest of the day. Thus the anticipated
effect of the small coronal hole seems to have started to
eventuate. The effect of this coronal hole may continue to
strengthen the solar wind stream on 15 and possibly on 16 June.
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels for
the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 14 Jun : A K
Australian Region 7 21212223
Darwin 6 21121223
Learmonth 6 21122123
Culgoora 7 1-311123
Camden 8 32212232
Canberra 4 10111123
Hobart 4 10112113
Casey(Ant) 8 22222322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jun :
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 17 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1100 0121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jun 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods
possible.
16 Jun 9 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Jun 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain mostly
at quiet to unsettled levels for the next two days with the
possibility of active periods on 15 and possibly 16 June
due to the effect of a small coronal hole. The activity is
expected to decline to quiet levels thereafter.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
16 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
17 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most locations for the next three days with the possibility
of minor and occassionaly moderate degradations at high
latitudes on 15 June and possibly 16 June due to an
anticipated rise in geomagnetic activity during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jun 13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted montly values with periods of
degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jun 14 Near predicted monthly values
16 Jun 14 Near predicted monthly values
17 Jun 16 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most parts of the Aus/NZ regions for the next three days
with some possibility of minor depressions in the Southern
Aus/NZ regions, especially on 15 and 16 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:26%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jun
Speed: 371 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 37400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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