[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 June 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 14 09:29:22 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z JUNE 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 14 JUNE - 16 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jun: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jun 15 Jun 16 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low today as well.
The solar wind speed gradually decreased from 380 to 340
km/s during the UT day today. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained close
to the normal value almost the whole day. Solar activity
is expected to remain at very low levels for the next three
days. The effect of a small coronal hole may strengthen the
solar wind stream for approximately three days starting from
14 June.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 11111111
Darwin 2 11111001
Learmonth 1 01110000
Culgoora 0 11000000
Camden 6 22212222
Canberra 0 11000000
Hobart 0 00000000
Casey(Ant) 7 22222222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jun :
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1010 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jun 7 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
15 Jun 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods
possible.
16 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain mostly
at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days with
the possibility of active periods on 15 and 16 June due to
the possible effect of a small coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jun Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jun Normal Normal Normal
15 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
16 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal in most locations for the next three days with
the possibility of minor and occassionaly moderate
degradations at high latitudes, especially on 15 and
16 June due to an anticipated rise in geomagnetic
activity during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jun 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted montly values with periods
of degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jun 15 Near predicted monthly values
15 Jun 14 Near predicted monthly values
16 Jun 14 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most parts of the Aus/NZ regions for the next three days
with some possibility of minor depressions in the Southern
Aus/NZ regions, especially on 15 and 16 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.10E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:25%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jun
Speed: 404 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 43400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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