[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 June 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 14 09:29:22 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z JUNE 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 14 JUNE - 16 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jun:  77/16

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Jun             15 Jun             16 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts    None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low today as well. 
The solar wind speed gradually decreased from 380 to 340 
km/s during the UT day today. The north-south component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained close 
to the normal value almost the whole day. Solar activity 
is expected to remain at very low levels for the next three 
days. The effect of a small coronal hole may strengthen the 
solar wind stream for approximately three days starting from 
14 June. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 13 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111111
      Darwin               2   11111001
      Learmonth            1   01110000
      Culgoora             0   11000000
      Camden               6   22212222
      Canberra             0   11000000
      Hobart               0   00000000
      Casey(Ant)           7   22222222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jun : 
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   1010 1111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Jun     7    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible. 
15 Jun    12    Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods 
                possible. 
16 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain mostly 
at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days with 
the possibility of active periods on 15 and 16 June due to 
the possible effect of a small coronal hole. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly 
normal in most locations for the next three days with 
the possibility of minor and occassionaly moderate 
degradations at high latitudes, especially on 15 and 
16 June due to an anticipated rise in geomagnetic 
activity during this period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Jun    16

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted montly values with periods
      of degradations. 

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Jun    15    Near predicted monthly values 
15 Jun    14    Near predicted monthly values 
16 Jun    14    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
in most parts of the Aus/NZ regions for the next three days 
with some possibility of minor depressions in the Southern 
Aus/NZ regions, especially on 15 and 16 June. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.10E+08 (high fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:25%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jun
Speed: 404 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:    43400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends 
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers. 
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list