[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 June 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 13 09:33:15 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z JUNE 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 13 JUNE - 15 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jun: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Jun 14 Jun 15 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low today as well.
Region 892(S07W41) showed some decay during the last 24
hours. The solar wind speed gradually decreased from 420
to 380 km/s during the UT day today as the coronal hole
effect further weakened. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained close to the
normal value almost the whole day. Solar activity is
expected to remain at very low levels for the next three
days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Jun : A K
Australian Region 4 21112211
Darwin 3 21111201
Learmonth 2 10111200
Culgoora 2 10101201
Camden 7 22112322
Canberra 2 10002201
Hobart 2 10012200
Casey(Ant) 8 32222222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jun :
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 2121 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Jun 5 Quiet
14 Jun 7 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
15 Jun 10 Mostly quiet, unsettled periods possible.
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain mostly
at quiet levels for the next three days with some possibility
of unsettled periods on 14 and 15 June due to the possible
effect of a small coronal hole that is expected to take a
geoeffective position late some time on 14 or 15 June.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jun Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jun Normal Normal Normal
14 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most locations for the next three days with the possibility
of minor and occassionaly moderate degradations at high
latitudes on 14 and 15 June due to an anticipated rise in
geomagnetic activity on these days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Jun 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
No data available during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with periods of
degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Jun 17 Near predicted monthly values
14 Jun 15 Near predicted monthly values
15 Jun 14 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most parts of the Aus/NZ regions for the next three days
with some possibility of minor depressions on 14 and 15 June
in the Southern Aus/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jun
Speed: 480 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 66000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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