[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 June 06

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z JUNE 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 12 JUNE - 14 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jun:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Jun             13 Jun             14 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low today. Region 
892 (S07W27) produced a B1.4 flare at 0918UT. The solar 
wind speed gradually decreased from 520 to 420 km/s during 
the UT day today as the coronal hole effect further weakened. 
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field (Bz) showed minor fluctuations on both sides of the 
normal value throughout the UTday. Solar activity is expected 
to remain at very low levels for the next three days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 11 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22112211
      Darwin               5   22112211
      Learmonth            4   22112201
      Culgoora             4   21112201
      Camden               5   21112222
      Canberra             4   21113200
      Hobart               4   11113200
      Casey(Ant)          11   33232-32
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jun : 
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   3322 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Jun     5    Quiet 
13 Jun     5    Quiet 
14 Jun     8    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible. 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain mostly 
at quiet levels for the next three days with some possibility 
of unsettled periods on 14 June. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
in most locations for the next three days with the possibility 
of minor and occassionaly moderate degradations at high 
latitudes on 14 June. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
11 Jun    16

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values with periods
      of degradations.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Jun    17    Near predicted monthly values 
13 Jun    17    Near predicted monthly values 
14 Jun    15    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
in most parts of the Aus/NZ regions for the next three days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+08 (high fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:27%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jun
Speed: 569 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:   107000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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