[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 June 06

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z JUNE 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 11 JUNE - 13 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jun:  76/14


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Jun             12 Jun             13 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low today. Region 
892(S07W14) produced a  B5.9 flare at 1639UT. The solar 
wind  speed  gradually  decreased  from 630 to 500 km/s 
during  the UT day  today, thus  signalling a declining 
coronal  hole effect. The  north-south component of the 
interplanetary  magnetic  field  (Bz)  showed   minor 
fluctuations on both sides of the normal value throughout 
the UTday. Solar activity is expected to remain at very 
low levels for the next three days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 10 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22223211
      Darwin               6   22122212
      Learmonth            7   22-----2
      Culgoora             6   22213111
      Camden               5   22113111
      Canberra             7   22223211
      Hobart               7   22223211
      Casey(Ant)          13   33323332
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jun : 
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               9   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10   3232 2222     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Jun     7    Mostly quiet, unsettled periods possible. 
12 Jun     5    Quiet 
13 Jun     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic  activity is expected to remain 
mostly at quiet levels for the next three days with some 
possibility of unsettled periods on 11 June. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
12 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal        
13 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: HF conditions  are expected to remain mostly 
normal in most locations for the next three days with 
the possibility of minor  and  occassionally moderate 
degradations at high latitudes on 11 June. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
10 Jun    13

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values with periods of 
      degradations. 

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Jun    16    Near predicted monthly values 
12 Jun    17    Near predicted monthly values 
13 Jun    17    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
in Aus/NZ regions for the next three days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jun
Speed: 633 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:   137000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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