[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 June 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z JUNE 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 18 JUNE - 20 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jun:  73/9


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Jun             19 Jun             20 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Expect solar activity to be very low for the next three 
days. SOHO ACE shows the solar wind steady at 600 km/s. Expect 
it to steadily decrease to 400 km/S over the next few days. The 
Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field flucuated between 
+/- 2 nT yesterday. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 17 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22332211
      Darwin               7   22322211
      Learmonth            7   22332210
      Culgoora             6   22331110
      Camden              10   32332222
      Canberra             7   22332210
      Hobart               7   22332210
      Casey(Ant)          11   33332222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jun : 
      Canberra            10   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10   3321 2233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Jun     6    Quiet 
19 Jun     6    Quiet 
20 Jun     7    Quiet 

COMMENT: Expect the geomagnetic activity to be to quiet over 
the next three days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Expect normal HF conditions for the next three days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Jun    28

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night and into dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      cases of spread F noted.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Jun    20    near predicted monthly values 
19 Jun    18    near predicted monthly values 
20 Jun    16    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain normal in the Aus/NZ 
regions for the next three days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.90E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jun
Speed: 585 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:   278000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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