[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 June 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z JUNE 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 05 JUNE - 07 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jun:  76/14


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Jun             06 Jun             07 Jun
Activity     Low                Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20
COMMENT: Increased solar wind speed from the coronal hole had 
less effect over the weekend than expected. This is possibly 
due to the dipole tilt of the magnetic axis at solstice reducing 
coupling of the magnetic field to the solar wind. The solar wind 
speed declined over the UT day from ~480km/sec to 380km/sec. 
IMF Bz has been mostly northwards so reconnection is not occurring 
with the geomagnetic field. B class flare activity observed from 
new AR892 and it has th epossibility for a C-class flare. Another 
recurrent coronal hole is expected to take effect about 7th June. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 04 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11101101
      Darwin               2   11111001
      Learmonth            0   10100000
      Culgoora             1   01100001
      Camden               5   21112221
      Canberra             0   00100000
      Hobart               0   00100100
      Casey(Ant)           4   22111111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jun : 
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   1110 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Jun     6    Quiet 
06 Jun     6    Quiet 
07 Jun    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Another recurrent coronal hole is expected to become 
geoeffective about 7 June. Solar wind speed has decreased to 
380km/sec. Geomagnetic field activity over the weekend, during 
the period of coronal hole high speeds, was weaker than expected. 
This may be due to the magnetic field axis tilt at solstices 
causing weak coupling to the solar wind, possibly also reducing 
the effect of the next coronal hole. IMF Bz has been northwards 
over the UT day so no merging with the geomagnetic field which 
is currently very quiet. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jun      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Conditions are generally normal and recovering from 
the less than expected effect of the solar coronal hole. Another 
coronal hole high speed solar wind stream is expected to take 
effect ~7 June. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Jun    18

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Jun    18    Near predicted monthly values 
06 Jun    20    near predicted monthly values 
07 Jun    20    about 10% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: The T index is trending downwards from the effect of 
the recent coronal hole but perhaps not as much as expected. 
Spread F is still occurring at tropical stations although conditions 
generally look normal. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jun
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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