[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 June 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 6 09:42:10 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z JUNE 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 06 JUNE - 08 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jun: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Jun 07 Jun 08 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: The solar wind speed again declined over the UT day
from ~380km/sec to 340km/sec with some disturbances. IMF Bz has
oscillated north-south with no strong southward period over an
hour so substantial merging is not occurring with the geomagnetic
field. AR892 has slightly increaaed in complexity and it has
the potential for B and possibly for C-class flares. Another
recurrent coronal hole is expected to take effect about 7th June.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Jun : A K
Australian Region 2 11110111
Darwin 2 11110111
Learmonth 1 10110110
Culgoora 1 11100010
Camden 4 11111212
Canberra 0 00000010
Hobart 1 00010110
Casey(Ant) 4 21211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jun :
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 1000 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Jun 2 Quiet
07 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Jun 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Another recurrent coronal hole is expected to become
geoeffective about 7 June. However the solar wind speed is still
decreasing and is down to 340km/sec. Geomagnetic field activity
over the period of the previous coronal hole high speed solar
wind weaker than expected. This may be due to the magnetic field
axis tilt at solstices causing weak coupling to the solar wind.
This may reduce the effect of the next coronal hole. IMF Bz has
oscillated north-south over the UT day so limited merging with
the geomagnetic field.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jun Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jun Normal Normal Normal
07 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
08 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Conditions are generally normal and seem to have recovered
from the less than expected effect of the solar coronal hole.
Slight enhancements at many mid-latitude sites across the whole
nighttime. Tropical latitudes show mixed enhancements and reductions
against average MUFs depending on time and position, best to
expect weaker conditions in frequency planning. Another coronal
hole high speed solar wind stream is expected to take effect
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Jun 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
slightly below predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Jun 15 near predicted monthly values
07 Jun 15 near predicted monthly values
08 Jun 10 about 10% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The T index is still trending downwards but starting
to shallow and approach the historical monthly average. Solar
AR892 should provide enough ionising flux to sustain the average
conditions before the effect of the next coronal hole ~7th June.
Spread F appears less prevalent at tropical and mid-latitude
stations and the ionosphere appears to be recovering from the
recent solar coronal hole.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jun
Speed: 411 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 45500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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