[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 July 06
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 30 09:55:34 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z JULY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JULY - 01 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jul: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Jul 31 Jul 01 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 21110011
Darwin 3 21110111
Learmonth 2 21110010
Culgoora 2 21110010
Camden 3 11111111
Canberra 1 10100001
Hobart 2 21110000
Casey(Ant) 5 22121121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jul :
Charters_Towers 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Hobart 7 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 26
Planetary 29 6643 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Jul 7 Quiet
31 Jul 13 Unsettled to Active
01 Aug 22 active
COMMENT: Disturbed geomagnetic conditions expected during the
forecast period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jul Normal Normal Normal
31 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
01 Aug Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high
latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Jul 22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 45% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Jul 20 Near predicted monthly values
31 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values
01 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jul
Speed: 623 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 187000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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