[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 July 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z JULY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JULY - 02 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jul:  74/11

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Jul             01 Aug             02 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: An equatorial coronal hole is now located at central 
meridian. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 30 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12110111
      Darwin               3   22110111
      Learmonth            2   12000200
      Culgoora             2   11110101
      Camden               5   12211122
      Canberra             2   12110101
      Hobart               2   12110100
      Casey(Ant)           5   22211211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jul : 
      Charters_Towers      0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            20   (Quiet)
      Canberra            55   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              31   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   3121 0111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Jul     8    Quiet to unsettled 
01 Aug    18    Mostly unsettled with isolated active periods. 
02 Aug    16    Mostly unsettled with isolated active periods. 

COMMENT: An equatorial coronal hole is expected to become geoeffective 
on 1 and 2 August. Minor storm levels are possible at the higher 
latitudes. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
01 Aug      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
02 Aug      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
30 Jul    10

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Spread F observed 11-20
      UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 20% at
      Christchurch 09-12 UT. Spread F observed 10-21 UT at
      Mundaring and Hobart.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 40% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Jul    10    Near predicted monthly values. 
01 Aug     5    Near predicted monthly values with depressions 
                to 30% at times. 
02 Aug     5    Near predicted monthly values with depressions 
                to 30% at times. 

COMMENT: Depressed conditions are possible, particularly at higher 
latitudes on 1 and 2 August due to a centrally located coronal 
hole. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jul
Speed: 494 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:    87600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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