[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 July 06

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z JULY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 29 JULY - 31 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jul:  73/9


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Jul             30 Jul             31 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13





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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jul: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 28 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region      14   44333211
      Darwin              16   44433311
      Learmonth           23   55443311
      Culgoora            13   44333201
      Camden              12   34333211
      Canberra            17   45343201
      Hobart              15   44343201
      Casey(Ant)          13   44332211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jul : 
      Charters             0   (Quiet)
      asp                 NA
      Springs             NA
      Culgoora            55   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            71   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              9   1000 2234     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
30 Jul     4    Quiet 
31 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jul      Normal-Fair    Fair           Fair-Poor
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
30 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
31 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Depressed conditions expected on day 1 of forecast period 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Jul    32

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 55% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Enhanced by 95% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Jul    20    Near predicted monthly values 
30 Jul    20    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
31 Jul    20    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+05 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jul
Speed: 336 km/sec  Density:    3.5 p/cc  Temp:    55800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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