[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 July 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z JULY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JULY - 21 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jul:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Jul             20 Jul             21 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: Learmonth Solar Observatory reports some minor activity 
from solar region 900, and an increase in the number of spots. 
This region is now located just west of the centre of solar disk 
and hasnt produced any significant activity as yet. Its remains 
the only spotted group on the solar disk. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 18 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11110110
      Darwin               2   11110111
      Learmonth            0   10000100
      Culgoora             0   01000100
      Camden               5   12112122
      Canberra             0   01000100
      Hobart               1   002-0100
      Casey(Ant)           3   12211110
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jul : 
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   1101 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Jul     3    Quiet 
20 Jul     4    Quiet 
21 Jul     3    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Generally normal HF conditions expected. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Jul    23

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Jul    15    Near predicted monthly values 
20 Jul    15    Near predicted monthly values 
21 Jul    15    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.00E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jul
Speed: 358 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:    41500 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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