[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 July 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z JULY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JULY - 20 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jul:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Jul             19 Jul             20 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: The Sun has been flare quiet. Learmonth Solar Observatory 
reports some minor activity from solar region 900 which is now 
located near the centre of solar disk. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 17 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11101111
      Darwin               3   11111111
      Learmonth            1   10001100
      Culgoora             1   01001110
      Camden               4   -2112111
      Canberra             0   10000000
      Hobart               0   00001001
      Casey(Ant)           4   12212111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jul : 
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   1210 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Jul     7    Quiet 
19 Jul     6    Quiet 
20 Jul     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Generally normal HF conditions expected. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Jul    23

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
     Depressed by 15% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Enhanced by 40% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Jul    15    Near predicted monthly values 
19 Jul    15    Near predicted monthly values 
20 Jul    15    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.10E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jul
Speed: 384 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:    47900 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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