[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 July 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z JULY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JULY - 19 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jul:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Jul             18 Jul             19 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: The Sun has been flare quiet. Solar region 900 located 
at S06E16 on the solar disk has shown growth over the past 24 
hours. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 16 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100000
      Darwin               2   22100101
      Learmonth            0   10000000
      Culgoora             0   11000000
      Camden               5   1212----
      Canberra             0   11000000
      Hobart               0   01000000
      Casey(Ant)           4   12211111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jul : 
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   2222 2212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Jul     3    Quiet 
18 Jul     4    Quiet 
19 Jul     3    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Generally normal HF conditions expected. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Jul    21

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 30% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Jul    15    Near predicted monthly values 
18 Jul    15    Near predicted monthly values 
19 Jul    15    Near predicted monthly values 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jul
Speed: 424 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:    64700 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends 
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers. 
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"