[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 July 06
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 16 09:55:33 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z JULY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JULY - 18 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jul: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Jul 17 Jul 18 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 12112011
Darwin 4 12212011
Learmonth 3 11122010
Culgoora 3 12112011
Camden 3 11112111
Canberra 2 11112000
Hobart 2 11112010
Casey(Ant) 6 23222111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jul :
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 14 1102 3443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Jul 7 Quiet
17 Jul 6 Quiet
18 Jul 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal
17 Jul Normal Normal Normal
18 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Generally normal HF conditions expected.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Jul 28
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Jul 25 Near predicted monthly values
17 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values
18 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jul
Speed: 435 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 73000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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