[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 July 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z JULY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JULY - 22 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jul:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Jul             21 Jul             22 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5





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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 19 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   01100001
      Darwin               1   11100001
      Learmonth            0   01000000
      Culgoora             0   01000000
      Camden               4   11211122
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               0   00000010
      Casey(Ant)           2   11111001
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jul : 
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   1100 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Jul     5    Quiet 
21 Jul     5    Quiet 
22 Jul     5    Quiet 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal for 
the next few days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Jul    17

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Jul    15    Near predicted monthly values 
21 Jul    15    Near predicted monthly values 
22 Jul    15    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal in 
most parts of Aus/NZ regions for the next few days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jul
Speed: 319 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:    29800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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