[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 July 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 12 09:32:44 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z JULY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JULY - 14 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jul: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Jul 13 Jul 14 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours with
no activity from region 899, the only notable sunspot currently
on disk. Solar wind velocity increased from 350km/s at 0000UT
to be 450km/s at the time of this report. Elevated solar wind
parameters are due to a geoeffective coronal hole. The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) had brief
southward periods between 1740UT and 2020UT at a maximum of -8nT.
Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Jul : A K
Australian Region 5 11112222
Darwin 6 11112232
Learmonth 6 01212322
Culgoora 4 01112221
Camden 7 22222222
Canberra 4 01112221
Hobart 3 01111221
Casey(Ant) 7 12222322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jul :
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 13 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 11 3212 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
13 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Mostly Unsettled conditions are expected for the next
3 days with possible Active periods in the next 24 hours due
to the current coronal hole solar wind stream.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jul Normal-fair Normal Fair-poor
13 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
14 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Some depressed periods observed for low latitudes over
the last 24 hours, with mostly normal conditions for mid latitudes.
Notable periods of poor ionospheric support for high latitudes.
Similar conditions are expected for the next 2 days whilist Unsettled
geomagnetic activity continues.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Jul 18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Jul 15 near predicted monthly values
13 Jul 20 near predicted monthly values
14 Jul 20 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed for Southern Aus/NZ
regions with some depressed periods during local day for Northern
Aus/Equatorial regions and sporadic E. Disturbed conditions observed
for Antarctic regions. Similar conditions are expected for the
next 2 days due to an increase in geomagnetic actvity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jul
Speed: 393 km/sec Density: 8.1 p/cc Temp: 55800 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list