[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 July 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 11 09:46:05 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z JULY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JULY - 13 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jul: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours with
no active regions currently on disc. Solar wind velocity declined
from 420km/s to be 360km/s at the time of this report. The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) ranged between
+/-5nT, with notable southward periods between 1100UT and 2000UT.
Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 10 Jul : A K
Australian Region 7 22122321
Darwin 7 22222321
Learmonth 8 22122331
Culgoora 7 22122321
Camden 9 32122332
Canberra 7 22122321
Hobart 6 21112321
Casey(Ant) 9 33222321
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jul :
Canberra 15 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 11 (Quiet)
Hobart 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1000 0114
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
13 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed over
the last 24 hours. The shock arrival that occured at 2050UT on
09Jul did not result in Active conditions, being only a glancing
blow from the 06Jul partial halo CME. Mostly Unsettled conditions
are expected for the next 3 days with possible Active periods
on 12Jul due to the arrival of a coronal hole high speed solar
wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jul Normal Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jul Normal-fair Normal Fair-poor
12 Jul Normal-fair Normal Fair-poor
13 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Some depressed periods observed for low latitudes over
the last 24 hours, with mostly normal conditions for mid latitudes.
Notable periods of poor ionospheric support for high latitudes.
Similar conditions are expected for the next 2 days whilist Unsettled
geomagnetic activity continues.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Jul 17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Jul 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
12 Jul 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
13 Jul 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed for Southern Aus/NZ
regions with some depressed periods during local day for Northern
Aus/Equatorial regions. Disturbed conditions observed for Antarctic
regions. Similar conditions are expected for the next 2 days
due to elevated geomagnetic actvity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jul
Speed: 367 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 50000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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