[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 July 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 10 09:47:10 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z JULY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JULY - 12 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jul: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours with
only minor B-class events from region 898, which is expected
to rotate off disk in the next 12 hours. Solar wind continued
to decline from 400km/s to be 325km/s at 2050UT, whereupon a
step increase in all solar wind paramters occured, with the solar
wind velocity jumping to 450km/s. This step increase was most
likely caused by the partial halo CME on 06Jul.The total magnitude
of the interplanetary magentic field (Bt) increased to 10nT with
brief southward swings by the north-south component Bz. Solar
activity is expected to be very low for the next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 09 Jul : A K
Australian Region 4 11111113
Darwin 3 11100113
Learmonth 2 01000103
Culgoora 2 11000003
Camden 7 22212123
Canberra 0 00000002
Hobart 2 10010102
Casey(Ant) 9 32222223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jul :
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 3 (Quiet)
Culgoora 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1020 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Jul 14 Unsettled to Active
11 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Jul 18 active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 7 was issued on 8 July and is
current for interval 9-10 July. Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic
conditions observed over the last 24 hours. There is an expected
increase in geomagnetic activity for all latitudes in the next
24 hours, with possible Active levels due to the glancing blow
of 06Jul CME's shock arrival that began at 2050UT. Unsettled
to Active conditions expected for the next 3 days due to coronal
hole effects on 12Jul prolonging elevated geomagnetic levels.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jul Normal-fair Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
11 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
12 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Some depressed periods observed for low latitudes over
the last 24 hours, with normal conditions for mid latitudes and
lengthy periods of poor ionospheric support for high latitudes.
Similar conditions are expected for the next 2 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Jul 13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 45% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Jul 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
11 Jul 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
12 Jul 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 9 was issued on 9 July
and is current for interval 9-10 July. Mostly normal HF conditions
observed for Southern Aus/NZ regions with some depressed periods
during local day for Northern Aus/Equatorial regions. Disturbed
conditions observed for Antarctic regions. Similar conditions
are expected for the next 2 days due to an increase in geomagnetic
actvity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jul
Speed: 423 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 42200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list