[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 July 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 9 09:45:57 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z JULY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 09 JULY - 11 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jul: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Very low Very low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours with
only minor B-class events from region 898. Region 898 showed
some signs of decay and will rotate off disk in the next 24 hours.
Solar wind velocity declined over the last 24 hours from 480km/s
to be 390km/s at the time of this report. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated between
+/-2nT throughout the UT day. A slight chance of an M-class event
is possible while region 898 remains on disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 11111111
Darwin 1 11110001
Learmonth 2 11110011
Culgoora 1 11000101
Camden 6 22112222
Canberra 0 00110000
Hobart 0 10100000
Casey(Ant) 7 22222222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jul :
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 2211 2231
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Jul 16 active
10 Jul 14 Unsettled to Active
11 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions ovbserved over the last
24 hours. Minute fluctuations in the Bz component of the inteplanetary
magnetic field observed and solar wind velocity has continued
to decline. There is an expected increase in geomagnetic activity
for all latitudes in the next 24 hours, with possible storm levels
due to the anticipated glancing blow of 06Jul CME's shock arrival.
Active conditions possible for the next 24-36 hours, with predominently
Unsettled conditions for 10Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jul Normal Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
10 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
11 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions expected at low latitudes
for the next 24-36 hours, with possible disturbances and depressed
periods for mid to high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Jul 19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Jul 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
10 Jul 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
11 Jul 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed for Northern
Aus/Equatorial regions with some depressed periods and
sporadic E observed, with similar conditions observed for
Southern Aus/NZ regions. Disturbed conditions observed for
Antarctic regions. Expected disturbed HF conditions for Southern
Aus/NZ and Antarctic regions for 09Jul-10Jul due to an
antcipated increase in geomagnetic actvity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 7.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jul
Speed: 512 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 111000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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