[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 July 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 8 09:51:11 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z JULY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 08 JULY - 10 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jul: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours with a
C5.2 class event at 1204UT and a C2.3 class event at 2149UT both
from region 898, which also produced numerous B-class events.
Region 898 remains unchanged in its overall sunspot size and
its magnetic composition has also remained constant with a large
leading negative region with some positive mixing. Solar wind
velocity declined over the last 24 hours from 540km/s to be still
slightly elevated at 480km/s at the time of this report. The
north south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz)
fluctuated between +/-3nT throughout the UT day. A slight chance
of an M-class event is possible while region 898 remains on disk.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 Jul : A K
Australian Region 6 11222311
Darwin 5 11222211
Learmonth 6 11213310
Culgoora 4 11212210
Camden 8 32212223
Canberra 5 01222310
Hobart 4 11122300
Casey(Ant) 12 23324-22
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jul :
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 11 4333 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Jul 9 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Jul 16 active
10 Jul 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions ovbserved over the last
24 hours. Only minor fluctuations in the Bz component of the
inteplanetary magnetic field observed and solar wind velocity
has continued its slow decline. Possible Active storm conditions
for the next 24 hours at high latitudes with mostly Unsettled
conditions at low to mid latitudes. Expected increase in geomagnetic
activity for all latitudes on 09Jul with the anticipated glancing
blow of 06Jul CME's shock arrival.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jul Normal Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
09 Jul Normal Normal-Fair Fair
10 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions expected at low to mid latitudes
for the next 24 hours. Periods of disturbed ionospheric support
observed for high latitudes over the next 2 days. Disturbed HF
conditions are expected 09Jul-11Jul for mid-high latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Jul 24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
No data available during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 50% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Jul 25 near predicted monthly values
09 Jul 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
10 Jul 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed for Northern Aus/Equatorial
regions with some disturbed periods and sporadic E observed.
Normal conditions observed for Southern Aus/NZ regions. Mostly
normal conditions expected for most regions with disturbed HF
conditions for Antarctic regions expected to continue for the
next 24 hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 7.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jul
Speed: 589 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 121000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list