[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 July 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 7 09:50:55 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z JULY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JULY - 09 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jul: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.5 0838UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jul: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the last 24 hours with
a M2.5 class flare from region 898, which was the result of a
disappearing solar filament. An associated CME was observed in
the LASCO imagery off the southwest limb, and is expected to
result in a glancing blow solar wind shock arrival on 09Jul.
Region 898 remains unchanged in its overall sunspot size and
its magnetic composition has also remained constant with a large
leading negative region with some positive mixing. Solar wind
velocity declined over the last 24 hours from 620km/s to be still
slightly elevated at 540km/s at the time of this report. The
north south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz)
fluctuated between +/-4nT throughout the UT day. A slight chance
of further M-class events possible in the next 2 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 06 Jul : A K
Australian Region 7 22321221
Darwin 6 22221221
Learmonth 7 23320220
Culgoora 7 23321211
Camden 8 22322222
Canberra 6 22321211
Hobart 7 22331210
Casey(Ant) 10 33322222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jul :
Canberra 42 (Unsettled)
Learmonth 8 (Quiet)
Culgoora 14 (Quiet)
Hobart 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 19 4552 2224
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Jul 9 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Jul 9 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Jul 16 active
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions ovbserved over the last
24 hours. Only minor fluctuations in the Bz component of the
inteplanetary magnetic field observed and solar wind velocity
gradually declined. Possible minor storm conditions for the next
24-48 hours at high latitudes with mostly unsettled conditions
at low to mid latitudes. Expected increase in geomagnetic activity
for all latitudes on 09Jul with the anticipated glancing blow CME
shock arrival.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jul Normal Normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jul Normal Normal Poor-fair
08 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions expected at low to mid latitudes
for the next 2 days. Periods of disturbed ionospheric support
observed for high latitudes over the last 24 hours, which is
expected to continue for the next 2 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Jul 26
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 45% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Jul 25 near predicted monthly values
08 Jul 25 near predicted monthly values
09 Jul 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed for Northern
Aus/Equatorial regions with some sporadic E observed. Normal
conditions for Southern Aus/NZ regions are expected. Disturbed
HF conditions for Antarctic regions are expected to continue
for the next 24 hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jul
Speed: 612 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 148000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list