[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 July 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 13 09:48:06 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z JULY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JULY - 15 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jul: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Jul 14 Jul 15 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind velocity increased from 430km/s at 0000UT to 510
km/s by 1000UT and then remained nearly steady at this value
for the rest of the day. Elevated solar wind parameters are
due to a geoeffective coronal hole. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) showed minor to
moderate fluctuations on both sides of the normal value
throughout the day. Solar activity is expected to remain very
low for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jul: Quiet to unsettled with
isolated active periods.
Estimated Indices 12 Jul : A K
Australian Region 8 22233121
Darwin 9 22333122
Learmonth 9 13333111
Culgoora 10 22243122
Camden 9 22233222
Canberra 11 22244121
Hobart 9 12244110
Casey(Ant) 12 33333231
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jul :
Canberra 19 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 11 (Quiet)
Hobart 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7 1112 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Jul 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity remained mostly at quiet
to unsettled levels with isolated active periods recorded
on some stations during the last 24 hours. Geomagnetic activity
is expected to remain mostly at quiet to unsettled levels for
the next two days and then decline further to mostly quiet
levels on the third day.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
14 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
15 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most regions for the next three days with some possibility
of minor to mild degradations at high latitudes on 13 and
14 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Jul 24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted montly values with periods of
degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Jul 20 near predicted monthly values
14 Jul 22 near predicted monthly values
15 Jul 24 about 5% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most parts of Aus/NZ regions for the next three days
with some possibility of minor degradations in the Sourthern
regions on 13 and 14 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jul
Speed: 375 km/sec Density: 6.3 p/cc Temp: 50100 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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