[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 January 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 30 10:45:09 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z JANUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JANUARY - 01 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jan: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Jan 31 Jan 01 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours,
with region 851 the source of two minor B-class flares. The solar
wind velocity continued to decreased from 475km/s at 0000UT to
be 350km/s at the time of this report. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field, Bz fluctuated between +/-2nT.
Very low solar activity is expected over the next few days with
no active regions currently on disc and the GOES background solar
xray flux dropping to below 10e-7 W/m^2. Solar wind parameters
are expected to remain at low levels for the next 24-48 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Jan : A K
Australian Region 3 22110011
Darwin 3 21110012
Learmonth 1 11000001
Culgoora - --------
Camden - --------
Canberra 4 22110031
Hobart 3 32100001
Casey(Ant) 8 33321012
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jan :
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 48 (Unsettled)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 2122 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Jan 6 Quiet
31 Jan 6 Quiet
01 Feb 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions where observed over the
last 24 hours. Conditions are expected to remain unchanged while
solar wind parameters reside at low levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jan Normal Normal Normal
31 Jan Normal Normal Normal
01 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Occasional enhanced periods observed for low latitudes
over the last 24 hours, and mostly good HF propagation conditions
for mid to high latitudes. Generally good HF conditions expected
for all latitudes over the next 2 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Jan 32
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
No data available during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 18
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Jan 30 near predicted monthly values
31 Jan 35 near predicted monthly values
01 Feb 35 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions observed for all regions over
the last 24 hours - with enhancements observed for Northern Aus.
regions and some sporadic E for Southern Aus/NZ regions. Similar
good HF conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jan
Speed: 521 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 86700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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