[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 January 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z JANUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 29 JANUARY - 31 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jan:  80/20


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Jan             30 Jan             31 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours, 
with region 848 the source of three minor B-class flares. The 
solar wind velocity continued to decreased from 650km/s to 550km/s 
over the UT day, while the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field, Bz fluctuated between +/-4nT.
Solar wind speed parameters are expected to continue to decline
over the next 24 hours. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 28 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   21222122
      Darwin               6   21222122
      Learmonth            7   21222132
      Culgoora             -   --------
      Camden               -   --------
      Canberra             5   21222121
      Hobart               6   21222122
      Casey(Ant)          11   4--22132
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jan : 
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra             9   (Quiet)
      Hobart              16   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   3122 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
30 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
31 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Solar wind speed paramters decreased over the last 24 
hours as Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions where observed.
Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next
2 days. 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
30 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
31 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Occasional depressed conditions observed for low to 
mid latitudes over the last 24 hours, with generally good HF 
propagation conditions. Occasional disturbed periods for high 
latitudes. Improving conditions are expected for all latitudes 
over the next 24 hours. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Jan    31

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  18

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Jan    25    near predicted monthly values 
30 Jan    25    near predicted monthly values 
31 Jan    30    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Slightly enhanced conditions observed local dawn and 
night for both Equatorial/Northern Aus regions over the last 
24 hours. Mostly normal conditions observed for Southern Aus/NZ 
regions. Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jan
Speed: 634 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:   153000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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