[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 January 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 31 10:30:29 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z JANUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JANUARY - 02 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jan: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Jan 01 Feb 02 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours,
with no flare activity and the GOES satellite background x-ray
flux level falling to 10e-8 W/m^2. The solar wind velocity continued
to decrease from 360km/s at 0000UT to be 310km/s at the time
of this report. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field, Bz fluctuated between +/-2nT. Solar wind parameters
are expected to remain at low levels for the next 24-48 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 22111111
Darwin 3 21111111
Learmonth 3 21111101
Culgoora 3 21111110
Camden 4 22111111
Canberra 3 111111-1
Hobart 3 12111111
Casey(Ant) 9 33332111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jan :
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 53 (Unsettled)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 3 1110 1100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Jan 6 Quiet
01 Feb 6 Quiet
02 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions where observed over the
last 24 hours. Conditions are expected to remain unchanged while
solar wind parameters reside at low levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jan Normal Normal Normal
01 Feb Normal Normal Normal
02 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Occasional disturbed periods observed for low and high
latitudes over the last 24 hours, and mostly good HF propagation
conditions for mid latitudes. Generally good HF conditions expected
for all regions over the next 2 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Jan 27
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 18
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Jan 25 near predicted monthly values
01 Feb 25 near predicted monthly values
02 Feb 25 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions observed for all regions over
the last 24 hours - with some depressions observed during local
night for Equatorial/Northern Aus, along with sporadic E.
Mostly normal HF conditions observed for Southern Aus/NZ regions.
Good conditions are expected for the next 2 days over all regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jan
Speed: 429 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 69800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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