[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 January 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 23 10:51:29 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z JANUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JANUARY - 25 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jan: 93/38
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jan 24 Jan 25 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 90/34
COMMENT: Expect solar activity to increase to low to moderate
levels due to SEC Boulder region number 10848. This region produced
multiple C-class flares on 22 Jan. It is also expected that the
Earth will enter a high speed solar wind stream 23 and 24 of
January due to a coronal hole moving into a geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 22 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 11223212
Darwin 7 21113213
Learmonth 7 21223212
Culgoora - --------
Camden - --------
Canberra 5 01123212
Hobart 7 11233212
Casey(Ant) 11 2-333312
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jan :
Learmonth 3 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1211 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jan 14 Unsettled to Active
24 Jan 16 active
25 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The Earth is expected to enter a high speed wind stream
later today 23 January. This may cause minor disturbances in
the geomagnetic field today and tomorrow.
A weak (13nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data
at 1336UT on 22 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
24 Jan Normal Normal-Fair Fair
25 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Variable overnight depressions and isolated cases of
sporadic E observed at low latitudes. Mid to high latitudes mostly
near normal except for spread F at high latitudes. Expect further
low latitude variability next two days, with the possibility
of high latitude disturbances later today (23 January) and tomorrow.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jan -0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 18
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jan 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
24 Jan 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
25 Jan 18 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable night-time depressions observed Equatorial/N
Aus regions. Conditions mostly near normal S Aus/NZ/Antarctic
regions. Expect further low-latitude variability and possible
disturbances at high latitudes over the next two days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jan
Speed: 415 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 56900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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