[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 January 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 24 10:39:37 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z JANUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JANUARY - 26 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jan: 92/37
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Jan 25 Jan 26 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Active region 848 produced multiple B-class flares over
the UT day, and an impulsive C3 level flare at 2217UT. The region
has shown some decay in magnetic complexity over the period.
Solar wind parameters are slightly elevated as the Earth entered
a high speed coronal hole wind stream in the first half of the
UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jan: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 23 Jan : A K
Australian Region 13 23433223
Darwin 13 33333223
Learmonth 13 23333323
Culgoora - --------
Camden - --------
Canberra 12 23433222
Hobart 12 13433222
Casey(Ant) 20 33544223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jan :
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 106 (Major storm)
Hobart 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 1112 3302
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Jan 15 Unsettled to Active
25 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The Earth entered the anticipated high speed coronal
hole wind stream, with fairly rapid onset after 07UT. Following
an interval of polarity fluctuation in the mid part of the UT
day, the Bz component of the IMF remained mostly neutral. Unsettled
to active geomagnetic conditions were observed at mid to high
latitudes during this interval. Otherwise conditions remained
mostly quiet. Expect isolated unsettled intervals today mainly
at high latitudes, then a gradual decline to generally quiet
conditions days two and three.
A weak (17nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data
at 0716UT on 23 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
25 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
26 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Localised variable conditions observed at low latitudes.
Minor disturbances observed at high latitudes second half of
the UT day. Expect mostly normal HF conditions at low to mid
latitudes next three days. Possible further disturbances at high
latitudes, mainly days one and two.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Jan 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 18
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Jan 5 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
25 Jan 15 Near predicted monthly values
26 Jan 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable night-time depressions observed Equatorial/N
Aus regions. Widespread and persistent sporadic-E observed S
Aus/Antarctic regions mainly local morning/evening, with occasional
slant sporadic-E in the polar cap. Daytime spread-F at high latitudes.
Increased ionospheric activity due to a high speed coronal hole
wind stream should see a reduction in low-latitude variability,
and further periods of disturbance at higher latitudes next two
to three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jan
Speed: 384 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 56900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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