[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 January 06

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z JANUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JANUARY - 24 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jan:  94/40


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Jan             23 Jan             24 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              90/34
COMMENT: No significant flare activity observed today. Some further 
development in magnetic mixing has been observed in active region 
848, which produced a few minor B-class flares. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 21 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22222111
      Darwin               6   22222112
      Learmonth            5   23122101
      Culgoora             -   --------
      Camden               -   --------
      Canberra             3   21122000
      Hobart               4   22112011
      Casey(Ant)           8   3-332111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jan : 
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            16   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6   1101 2332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Jan     5    Quiet 
23 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
24 Jan    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Generally quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over 
the UT day. Expect continuing quiet conditions day one. A small 
equatorial coronal hole may produce elevated solar wind parameters 
on days two and three. 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
24 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Variable overnight depressions observed at low latitudes. 
Mid to high latitudes mostly near normal. Expect further low 
latitude variability next two days, with the possibility of high 
latitude disturbances days two and three. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Jan     9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  18

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Jan    10    depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
23 Jan    15    near predicted monthly values 
24 Jan    15    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Variable night-time depressions observed Equatorial/N 
Aus regions. Conditions mostly near normal S Aus/NZ/Antarctic 
regions. Equatorial spread-F observed local evening and night. 
Isolated sporadic-E observed S Aus region local afternoon. Expect 
further low-latitude variability next two days. Possible disturbances 
at high latitudes days two and three. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jan
Speed: 457 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:    87600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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