[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 January 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 19 10:33:34 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z JANUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JANUARY - 21 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jan: 86/29
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity remains very low with no significant
flare activity observed. There was a minor increase in solar
wind velocity over the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 18 Jan : A K
Australian Region 9 32232312
Darwin 8 32222312
Learmonth 11 32232412
Culgoora 8 22231312
Camden 21 4------3
Canberra 10 22341312
Hobart 10 22342311
Casey(Ant) 12 3--33322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jan :
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 8 2322 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Jan 5 Quiet
21 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: There was a small gradual increase in solar wind velocity
over the UT day, accompanied by a small gradual decrease in solar
wind density, indicating a weak, probably short-lived, coronal
hole wind stream. Minor step increases were observed in solar
wind velocity at 04 and 10 UT, with negative excursions in Bz
polarity. These events resulted in brief intervals of unsettled
geomagnetic conditions at mid to high latitudes. Expect mostly
quiet geomagnetic conditions next three days, with the possibility
of unsettled intervals mainly on day one.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
20 Jan Normal Normal Normal
21 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions showed significant variability over the
UT day. Moderate enhancements and depressions were observed particularly
at stations in the mid-low latitude band. HF conditions are expected
to remain much the same over the next 24 hours, however further
depressions at low latitudes are possible on days two and three.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Jan 0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 18
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Jan 10 near predicted monthly values
20 Jan 5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
21 Jan 0 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable enhancements and depressions observed Equatorial/N
Aus regions. Conditions mostly near normal S Aus/NZ/Antarctic
regions. Widespread sporadic-E conditions observed mostly local
morning in northern regions and afternoon in southern regions.
Expect similar conditions next three days, with further low latitude
variability especially days two and three.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jan
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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