[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 January 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 18 10:16:30 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z JANUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JANUARY - 20 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jan: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the past 24 hours.
No significant flares were recorded. Background Xray flux remained
at the class A2 level. Solar activity is expected to remain at
very low levels for the next 24 hours. The solar wind speed is
currently relatively stable at 430km/s.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 Jan : A K
Australian Region 7 22223212
Darwin 6 22222112
Learmonth 7 22223212
Culgoora 7 22223112
Camden 23 34-----4
Canberra 8 22323212
Hobart 7 22223212
Casey(Ant) 13 4--33222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jan :
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 14 0322 4343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Jan 5 Quiet
19 Jan 2 Quiet
20 Jan 2 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled over the
past 24 hours with isolated active periods on the dayside at
high latitudes. The high latitude activity was primarily due
to elevated solar wind speeds as the Earth passes through a coronal
hole wind stream and a predominantly southward IMF for the first
half of the UT day. The solar wind speed is expected to slow
over the day. Expect quiet geomagnetic conditions for the next
2-3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions showed significant variability over the
UT day. Both large enhancements and depressions were observed
particularly at stations in the mid-low latitude band. HF conditions
are expected to remain much the same over the next 24 hours,
however further depressions at low latitudes are possible on
19 Jan.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Jan 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Variably enhanced/depressed over the UT day.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 18
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Jan 5 10% below predicted monthly values / Variable
enhancements and depressions
19 Jan 0 About 15% below predicted monthly values / Variable
enhancements and depressions
20 Jan 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The ionosphere showed significant variability over the
UT day. The Northern Australia region in particular showed both
large enhancements and depressions, while in the Southern Australia
and NZ regions, MUFs generally remained near monthly mean values.
Ionospheric conditions are expected to remain highly variable
over the next 24 hours and there is the possibility of further
depressions on 19 Jan.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jan
Speed: 446 km/sec Density: 5.9 p/cc Temp: 114000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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