[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 January 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 17 09:36:39 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z JANUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JANUARY - 19 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jan: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan
Activity Very low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the past 24 hours.
No significant flares were recorded. Background Xray flux remained
at the class A2 level. Solar activity is expected to remain at
low levels for the next 24 hours. The solar wind continues to
be elevated in speed as the Earth passes through a coronal hole
wind stream, peaking at 480km/s over the UT day. Current speed
is 450km/s and expected to decrease over the next 24-48 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jan: Unsettled with isolated active
periods.
Estimated Indices 16 Jan : A K
Australian Region 15 33333432
Darwin 11 22233332
Learmonth 14 23333432
Culgoora 12 23323332
Camden 15 3333---3
Canberra 18 43333442
Hobart 17 24333442
Casey(Ant) 17 4--43332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jan :
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 7 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 2100 0222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Jan 3 Quiet
19 Jan 2 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was generally unsettled over the
past 24 hours with isolated active periods. This was primarily
due to elevated solar wind speeds as the Earth passes through
a coronal hole wind stream. The solar wind speed is expected
to wane over the next 24-48 hours. Expect quiet to unsettled
conditions 17 Jan with a return to quiet geomagnetic conditions
18 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
18 Jan Normal Normal Normal
19 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions over the UT day were significantly improved
in comparison to the last four days, particularly at low and
mid latitudes. However there remained significant variability
with both large enhancements and depressions observed at several
mid-low latitude sites. HF conditions are expected to improve
further over the next 24 hours with the possible exception of
the high latitude regions which may see isolated periods of
degraded HF.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Jan 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 18
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Jan 15 Near predicted monthly values / depressed to
10%.
18 Jan 20 near predicted monthly values
19 Jan 22 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Overall the ionosphere showed significant improvement
from the depressed conditions of the past four days, although
it remained quite variable. Both depressions and enhancements
were observed at a number of Australian and PNG stations over
the UT day. Ionospheric conditions are expected to improve further
over the next 24 hours, however geomagnetic activity may cause
further isolated depressions at high latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jan
Speed: 344 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 62700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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