[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 January 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 16 10:10:24 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z JANUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JANUARY - 18 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jan: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the past 24 hours. Background
Xray flux returned to above the class A1 level. The largest flare
of the period was a C1.0 at 15/1445UT from newly numbered region
847 (S09W06). This region has been classified as a beta magnetic
class. Significant flaring is unlikely. Solar activity is expected
to remain at low levels for the next 24 hours. The solar wind
has been increasing steadily in speed over the UT day as the
Earth enters a coronal hole wind stream. Current speed is just
over 400km/s and increasing. This may cause a widespread increase
in geomagnetic activity levels on 16 Jan.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 15 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 21200223
Darwin 5 21100223
Learmonth 4 21100222
Culgoora 4 11100223
Camden - --------
Canberra 5 1-200223
Hobart 4 12100222
Casey(Ant) 9 3-321223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jan :
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 0101 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Jan 16 active
17 Jan 7 Quiet
18 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled over the
past 24 hours. Expect mostly unsettled conditions 16 Jan due
to a coronal hole wind stream. Isolated active periods possible,
particularly at high latitudes. Geomagnetic activity levels are
expected to return to quiet-unsettled on 17 Jan.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jan Fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
17 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions remained depressed at low and mid latitudes
over the last 24 hours, with some significant depressions particularly
at the lower latitudes. The high latitude regions also suffered
some degradation of HF conditions. The increase in solar activity
should see an improvement in HF conditions at mid and low latitudes,
however the expected increase in geomagnetic activity levels
may continue to depress HF conditions at high latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Jan -13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 10% during the local day.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 18
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Jan 4 about 10% below predicted monthly values
17 Jan 15 Near predicted monthly values / depressed to
10%.
18 Jan 18 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 1 was issued on 14 January
and is current for interval 15-16 January. The ionosphere again
showed some large depressions in the N.Aus/PNG regions, up to
30%. Depressions were also evident during the day at some mid-latitude
and Southern Australian stations, and the Antarctic regions were
depressed by up to 20%. Ionospheric conditions are expected to
improve over the next 24 hours in the Australian and PNG regions,
however the expected increase in geomagnetic activity may cause
further ionospheric depressions at high latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jan
Speed: 300 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 18100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list