[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 January 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 16 10:10:24 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z JANUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JANUARY - 18 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jan:  81/22


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Jan             17 Jan             18 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the past 24 hours. Background 
Xray flux returned to above the class A1 level. The largest flare 
of the period was a C1.0 at 15/1445UT from newly numbered region 
847 (S09W06). This region has been classified as a beta magnetic 
class. Significant flaring is unlikely. Solar activity is expected 
to remain at low levels for the next 24 hours. The solar wind 
has been increasing steadily in speed over the UT day as the 
Earth enters a coronal hole wind stream. Current speed is just 
over 400km/s and increasing. This may cause a widespread increase 
in geomagnetic activity levels on 16 Jan. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 15 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   21200223
      Darwin               5   21100223
      Learmonth            4   21100222
      Culgoora             4   11100223
      Camden               -   --------
      Canberra             5   1-200223
      Hobart               4   12100222
      Casey(Ant)           9   3-321223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jan : 
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            31   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   0101 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Jan    16    active 
17 Jan     7    Quiet 
18 Jan     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled over the 
past 24 hours. Expect mostly unsettled conditions 16 Jan due 
to a coronal hole wind stream. Isolated active periods possible, 
particularly at high latitudes. Geomagnetic activity levels are 
expected to return to quiet-unsettled on 17 Jan. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jan      Fair           Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair          
17 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
18 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   

COMMENT: HF conditions remained depressed at low and mid latitudes 
over the last 24 hours, with some significant depressions particularly 
at the lower latitudes. The high latitude regions also suffered 
some degradation of HF conditions. The increase in solar activity 
should see an improvement in HF conditions at mid and low latitudes, 
however the expected increase in geomagnetic activity levels 
may continue to depress HF conditions at high latitudes. 

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Jan   -13

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 10% during the local day.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  18

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Jan     4    about 10% below predicted monthly values 
17 Jan    15    Near predicted monthly values / depressed to 
                10%. 
18 Jan    18    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 1 was issued on 14 January 
and is current for interval 15-16 January. The ionosphere again 
showed some large depressions in the N.Aus/PNG regions, up to 
30%. Depressions were also evident during the day at some mid-latitude 
and Southern Australian stations, and the Antarctic regions were 
depressed by up to 20%. Ionospheric conditions are expected to 
improve over the next 24 hours in the Australian and PNG regions, 
however the expected increase in geomagnetic activity may cause 
further ionospheric depressions at high latitudes. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jan
Speed: 300 km/sec  Density:    3.4 p/cc  Temp:    18100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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