[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 January 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 15 10:21:35 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z JANUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JANUARY - 17 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jan: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the past 24 hours.
Expected to continue for at least the next 24 hours. Solar activity
may increase from 16 Jan with the return of old active regions
838 and 841 over the next day. Solar wind speed remains low (~300km/s)
at the time of this report, however it is expected to increase
over the next 24 hours as the Earth moves into a high speed coronal
hole wind stream. This is likely to cause a widespread increase
in geomagnetic activity levels by 16 Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 21111122
Darwin 4 21111122
Learmonth 4 11112121
Culgoora 4 11111122
Camden - --------
Canberra 5 22111122
Hobart 4 12111121
Casey(Ant) 8 3-321222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jan :
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 30 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 2 1000 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jan 12 Unsettled
16 Jan 16 active
17 Jan 7 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was quiet over the past 24 hours.
An increase in geomagnetic activity is expected over the next
24 hours in response to a coronal hole wind stream. This activity
is expected to continue into 16 Jan before returning to pre-coronal
hole conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jan Fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jan Fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
16 Jan Fair Fair Fair
17 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions remained depressed at low and mid latitudes
over the last 24 hours, with some significant depressions particularly
at the lower latitudes both overnight and also during the day.
The high latitude regions suffered some minor depressions but
otherwise mostly normal conditions over the UT day. The expected
increase in geomagnetic activity over the next 24-48 hours is
likely to cause further degradation of HF conditions, particularly
in the high latitude regions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jan -9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 18
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jan -16 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
16 Jan -10 about 20% below predicted monthly values
17 Jan 5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The ionosphere again showed some large depressions in
the N.Aus/PNG regions, up to 30% overnight and 20% during the
day. Depressions were also evident during the day at some mid-latitude
and Southern Australian stations, while the NZ,subAntarctic and
Antarctic regions were mostly normal. The expected increase in
geomagnetic activity over the next 24-48 hours is expected to
cause further ionospheric depressions 15-16 Jan, particularly
in the high latitude regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jan
Speed: 299 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 15700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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