[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 January 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 14 10:32:03 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z JANUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JANUARY - 16 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jan: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the past 24 hours.
Expected to continue. Subsequent analysis of the partial halo
CME observed in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery from 12/1530UT confirms
it was most likely a backside event, not Earth-directed. A
disappearing solar filament was observed in H-alpha at S03W16
on 12/2350UT. A Type II radio sweep occurred at 13/0004UT with
an estimated velocity of 500km/s. LASCO C2 imagery shows a
westward-directed CME from 13/0045UT, also not thought to be
Earthward-directed.
A trans-equatorial coronal hole should move into geoeffective
position on 15 Jan. Expect elevated solar wind speeds and a
widespread increase in geomagnetic activity levels at this time.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 21212212
Darwin 5 11212212
Learmonth 4 20111212
Culgoora 3 10101212
Camden 3 11------
Canberra 3 1110221-
Hobart 4 20202212
Casey(Ant) 9 33312222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jan :
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1111 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jan 5 Quiet
15 Jan 18 active
16 Jan 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was very quiet over the past 24
hours at all latitudes. Expected to continue at very quiet activity
levels for the next 24 hours. An increase in geomagnetic activity
can be expected to occur on 15 Jan in response to elevated solar
wind speeds from a coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
15 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
16 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions remained depressed at low latitudes over
the last 24 hours, again predominantly overnight but with significant
depressions also during the day. Mostly normal HF conditions
were again observed at mid and high latitudes. Expect these HF
propagation conditions to continue for the next 24 hours. 15
Jan may see further depressions, particularly at high latitudes
in response to elevated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jan -5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 18
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jan -5 Depressed to 20% in the N.Aus/PNG region / Near
predicted monthly values S.Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions.
15 Jan -10 about 20% below predicted monthly values
16 Jan 0 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The ionosphere showed some large depressions in the
N.Aus/PNG regions, particularly overnight and in the early morning
hours. Minor depressions were also evident overnight at
some mid-latitude Australian stations, while the NZ,subAntarctic
and Antarctic regions were mostly normal. These conditions are
likely to continue for the next 24 hours. 15 Jan may see further
depressions in the high latitude regions in response to elevated
geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jan
Speed: 304 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 24700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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