[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 January 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 13 09:59:53 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z JANUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JANUARY - 15 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jan: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the past 24 hours.
Expected to continue for the next 24-48 hours. A weak partial
halo CME was observed in SOHO LASCO imagery to occur shortly
before 1900UT. This was most likely a backside event and is not
expected to impact on the Earth. A trans-equatorial coronal hole
is currently passing solar meridian and should move into geoeffective
position on the 14th or 15th of Jan. Expect elevated solar wind
speeds and a widespread increase in geomagnetic activity levels
at this time.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Jan : A K
Australian Region 3 12210011
Darwin 2 12110011
Learmonth 3 22110011
Culgoora 3 02200012
Camden - --------
Canberra 3 12210012
Hobart 3 12211011
Casey(Ant) 7 24-21111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jan :
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0000 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Jan 5 Quiet
14 Jan 6 Quiet
15 Jan 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was very quiet over the past 24
hours at all latitudes. Expected to continue at very quiet activity
levels for the next 24-48 hours. An increase in geomagnetic activity
can be expected to occur on Jan 15 in response to elevated solar
wind speeds from a coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal
14 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal
15 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were generally depressed at low latitudes
over the last 24 hours, particularly overnight and in the early
afternoon hours. However mostly normal HF conditions were observed
at mid and high latitudes. Expect these HF propagation conditions
to continue for the next 24-48 hours. Jan 15 may see further
depressions, particularly at high latitudes in response to elevated
geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Jan 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 18
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Jan -4 Depressed to 20% in the N.Aus/PNG region / Near
predicted monthly values S.Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions.
14 Jan 0 Depressed to 20% in the N.Aus/PNG region / Near
predicted monthly values S.Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions.
15 Jan 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: The ionosphere showed some large depressions in the
N.Aus/PNG regions, particularly overnight and in the early afternoon
hours. Minor depressions were also evident during the day at
some mid-latitude Australian stations, while the NZ,subAntarctic
and Antarctic regions were mostly normal. These conditions are
likely to continue for the next 24-48 hours. Jan 15 may see further
depressions in the high latitude regions in response to elevated
geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jan
Speed: 302 km/sec Density: 5.8 p/cc Temp: 17000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list