[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 January 06

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z JANUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JANUARY - 14 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jan:  77/16


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Jan             13 Jan             14 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    78/17              78/17              78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the past 24 hours. 
Expected to continue at very low levels. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 11 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11122111
      Darwin               3   11121111
      Learmonth            4   11022211
      Culgoora             3   01122111
      Camden               3   -11221-0
      Canberra             4   1-1221-1
      Hobart               3   10122110
      Casey(Ant)           6   2-322111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jan : 
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            40   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              1   0000 0100     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Jan     2    Quiet 
13 Jan     3    Quiet 
14 Jan     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was very quiet over the past 24 
hours at all latitudes. Expected to continue at very quiet activity 
levels. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24 
hours, other than some minor daytime depressions at low latitudes. 
Expect mostly normal HF propagation conditions next three days. 

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Jan    10

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Variably depressed by up to 15% 
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  18

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Jan    12    Near predicted monthly values/depressed up to 
                15% during the day in the Northern Australia/PNG 
                region 
13 Jan    12    Near predicted monthly values/depressed up to 
                10% 
14 Jan    12    Near predicted monthly values/depressed up to 
                10% 
COMMENT: Depressions up to 20% observed during daytime, particularly 
in the Northern Australia and PNG region. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jan
Speed: 289 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:    18400 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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