[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 January 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 20 10:39:58 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z JANUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JANUARY - 22 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jan: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Jan 21 Jan 22 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: No significant flare activity observed today. There
was a fast south-east directed CME first visible in LASCO C3
imagery at 1218UT, resulting from a disappearing solar filament
in the SE quadrant. The CME does not appear earth-directed. There
was an earlier weak west-directed CME, probably resulting from
a backside event.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 19 Jan : A K
Australian Region 8 21223223
Darwin 7 21222123
Learmonth 7 20222223
Culgoora 6 21223112
Camden - --------
Canberra 8 22223113
Hobart 7 22223212
Casey(Ant) 16 4-433223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jan :
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 16 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 5 2112 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Jan 5 Quiet
21 Jan 5 Quiet
22 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind velocity declined to around 440 km/s. The
Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field was mostly
neutral until about 16UT, after which it showed mild southward
fluctuations. Isolated unsettled periods were observed at high
latitudes only, otherwise geomagnetic conditions were quiet.
Expect continuing mostly quiet conditions next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jan Normal Normal Normal
21 Jan Normal Normal Normal
22 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Moderate overnight depressions observed Equatorial region.
Moderate overnight enhancements observed N Aus region. Conditions
mostly normal S Aus/Antarctic region. Expect further low latitude
variability next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Jan 23
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 18
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Jan 20 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
21 Jan 25 near predicted monthly values
22 Jan 25 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable enhancements and depressions observed Equatorial/N
Aus regions. Conditions mostly near normal S Aus/NZ/Antarctic
regions. Periods of sporadic-E conditions observed mostly local
morning in northern regions and afternoon in southern regions.
Expect similar conditions next three days, with further low latitude
variability.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jan
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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