[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 January 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z JANUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JANUARY - 09 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jan:  82/23


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Jan             08 Jan             09 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20


IPS/USAF Learmonth Observatory reports good flare potential
 from solar region(s):number 841. However, this region is 
 at west 90 and will rotate off disk.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 06 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22222221
      Darwin               5   22212112
      Learmonth            5   22222111
      Culgoora             5   11212221
      Camden               6   22212221
      Canberra             6   12222221
      Hobart               7   12322221
      Casey(Ant)           9   --422121
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jan : 
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            14   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   0012 2001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Jan    12    Unsettled 
08 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
09 Jan     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Generally quiet to unsettled conditions expected. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions. Mildly degraded HF conditions 
possible at high latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Jan    35

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  18

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Jan    20    Near predicted monthly values 
08 Jan    20    Near predicted monthly values 
09 Jan    20    Near predicted monthly values 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jan
Speed: 342 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:    49500 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends 
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers. 
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"