[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 January 06

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z JANUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JANUARY - 08 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jan:  83/24


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Jan             07 Jan             08 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20
COMMENT: An impulsive C4 flare was observed at 0923UT, and was 
associated with a Type II radio sweep (observed on the Learmonth 
Observatory radio spectrograph). Solar radio event data suggests 
a weak shock may arrive at the earth during the first half of 
the UT day on 07 Jan. However, subsequent viewing of the LASCO 
space based solar coronagraph showed no coronal mass ejection 
had apparently left the Sun. The region that produced the flare 
is in the far northwest corner of the solar disk and will rotate 
off disk in 2 to 3 days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 05 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21212111
      Darwin               2   10111101
      Learmonth            3   11112111
      Culgoora             3   21112101
      Camden               7   21322222
      Canberra             3   11212101
      Hobart               3   11221101
      Casey(Ant)           9   33-23112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jan : 
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2   0100 0000     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
07 Jan    12    Unsettled 
08 Jan    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Recurrence suggests that a mild increase in activity 
may be experienced 6-7 Jan. In addition there is a small chance 
for very minor activity on 7 Jan from C4/TypeII flare. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions. Mildly degraded HF conditions 
possible at high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Jan    23

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted to 15% enhanced over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  18

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Jan    20    Near predicted monthly values 
07 Jan    20    Near predicted monthly values 
08 Jan    20    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions expected. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jan
Speed: 398 km/sec  Density:    0.9 p/cc  Temp:    60000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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