[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 February 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 27 10:12:28 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z FEBRUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 FEBRUARY - 01 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Feb: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Feb 28 Feb 01 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity continues to be very low. Only a couple
of B flares recorded from a region rotating onto the SE limb.
This new region may produce C flares. Solar wind speed is average
340-380 km/sec. IMF Bz turned southwards ~11UT and has remained
south, enhncing merging with the geomagnetic field, apart from
a brief northward excursion ~16UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 26 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 12212212
Darwin 5 12112212
Learmonth 6 12112213
Culgoora 3 11------
Camden 7 13222222
Canberra 6 13212212
Hobart 6 13212211
Casey(Ant) 9 2--22323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Feb :
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 1000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Feb 9 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Mar 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Enhanced solar wind speed from the previous coronal
hole appears to have returned to normal so the geomagnetic field
is not being affected by it. Prolonged (~12hrs) magnetic merging
of the solar IMF and geomagnetic fields due to southward IMF
Bz is causing higher activity at polar latitudes. If Bz southwards
continues for a significant period the magnetic enhancement may
expand globally.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
28 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
01 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Except for isolated cases of sporadic E at low-mid latitudes
and spread F at high latitudes, propagation conditions should
be normal for the next three days. High latitude conditions may
deteriorate if the prolonged IMF Bz southwards condition continues
for at least half a day and the polar ionosphere becomes disturbed
by convection.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Feb 30
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Feb 15 Near predicted monthly values
28 Feb 15 Near predicted monthly values
01 Mar 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions slightly enhanced in the last day. Possible
increase in magnetic activity due to prolonged merging with the
solar IMF will probably return conditions to normal or slightly
below. Polar latitudes are slightly depressed due to the ongoing
magnetic merging of the solar and geomagnetic fields and subsequenct
ionospherc convection.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Feb
Speed: 383 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 55000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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