[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 February 06

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z FEBRUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 26 FEBRUARY - 28 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Feb:  76/14


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Feb             27 Feb             28 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20





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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Feb: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 25 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11210001
      Darwin               2   11110002
      Learmonth            2   11210001
      Culgoora             1   11100001
      Camden               5   12222112
      Canberra             1   11110001
      Hobart               2   12110001
      Casey(Ant)           7   3-321012
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Feb : 
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6   2203 3000     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Feb     7    Quiet 
27 Feb     6    Quiet 
28 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled 



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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Generally normal HF conditions expected. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Feb    20

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 30% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Depressed by 20% during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Feb    20    Near predicted monthly values 
27 Feb    15    Near predicted monthly values 
28 Feb    15    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Feb
Speed: 433 km/sec  Density:    3.4 p/cc  Temp:    95700 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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