[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 February 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 28 10:04:52 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z FEBRUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 FEBRUARY - 02 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Feb: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Feb 01 Mar 02 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity continues to be very low. The new region
on the SE limb AR856 continues to produce low-level B class flares
and may produce C flares. Solar wind speed is average 320-360
km/sec and shows no sign yet of recurrent coronal hole activity
that may occur on the 28th. IMF Bz drifted back towards zero
for 04-17UT and then northward for 12-17UT, effectively shutting
off merging of geomagnetic and solar fields after the prolonged
southward period. After a brief excursion southward 17-21UT it
has now returned northward to +5nT so merging with the geomagnetic
field is again turned off.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 22112001
Darwin 3 11112---
Learmonth 2 21002001
Culgoora 1 -1002001
Camden 4 22112011
Canberra 2 11002001
Hobart 2 12102001
Casey(Ant) 8 33322011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Feb :
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5 0210 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Mar 5 Quiet
02 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind speed continues at average levels so the
geomagnetic field is not being affected (see solar report). A
recurrent coronal hole wind speed increase is possible on the
28th but shows no sign as yet, late on the 27th. Prolonged (~20hrs)
magnetic merging of the southwards solar IMF Bz and geomagnetic
fields was shut off ~04UT by Bz tending to zero and then northwards
for 14 hours till 18UT. This prevented the enhanced polar magnetic
activity expanding globally. IMF now looks strongly northwards
to the field is expected to remain at Quiet levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Feb Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
01 Mar Normal Normal Normal
02 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Propagation conditions should be normal for the next
three days in the absence of significant geomagnetic activity,
apart from localised sporadic E or spread F conditions where
they are usually prone. High latitude conditions may continue
fair but improve on the 28th during recovery from the prolonged
which caused polar ionospheric convection.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Feb 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Dusk enhancements noted
at PNG (Vanimo, Pt Moresby) and Western Pacific (Niue).
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Spread F observed overnight
in the Southern Ocean at Christchurch and MacQuarie Is.
Strong sporadic E was also observed overnight at
Hobart.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Strong
Spread F observd inside the polar cap at Casey due to
ionospheric convection resulting from prolonged
~20hr southward IMF Bz merging with the geomagnetic
field.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Feb 15 ÿon.forecast
01 Mar 12 Near predicted monthly values
02 Mar 14 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions average at low and mid latitudes. Conditions
improving at higher latitudes after prolonged merging (~20hrs)
with the solar IMF, which drove polar cap ionospheric convection,
was shut off by Bz turning zero to northwards for several hours.
Overall conditions expected to be average apart from local sporadic
E and spread F.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Feb
Speed: 362 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 67700 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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