[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 February 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z FEBRUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 FEBRUARY - 24 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Feb:  76/14


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Feb             23 Feb             24 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13
COMMENT: Mildly elevated solar wind speed due to coronal 
hole, with a declining trend. No flares observed. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Feb: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 21 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      14   22344322
      Darwin              12   22333323
      Learmonth           13   22244322
      Culgoora            11   22333322
      Camden               -   --------
      Canberra            14   22344322
      Hobart              13   22334332
      Casey(Ant)          21   34444333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Feb : 
      Canberra            20   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              34   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             20   2234 4622     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Feb    22    active 
23 Feb    16    active 
24 Feb    17    active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 19 February 
and is current for interval 22 February only. Disturbed geomagnetic 
conditions expected during the forecast period. 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
23 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
24 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Feb    18

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
     Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
     Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Feb    10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                15% 
23 Feb    10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                15% 
24 Feb    10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                15% 
COMMENT: Mild depression possible next few days southern Aus/NZ 
region only. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Feb
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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