[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 February 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z FEBRUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 FEBRUARY - 25 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Feb:  76/14


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Feb             24 Feb             25 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13





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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Feb: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 22 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   32333411
      Darwin              11   32232412
      Learmonth           13   32333421
      Culgoora            10   32233311
      Camden              12   42332312
      Canberra            12   32333411
      Hobart              12   32333411
      Casey(Ant)          16   4-433322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Feb : 
      Canberra            39   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Learmonth            7   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            12   (Quiet)
      Hobart              54   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             17   3434 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Feb    12    Unsettled 
24 Feb    20    active 
25 Feb    16    active 



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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Feb      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
24 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
25 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Feb    10

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced to 30% 14-20
      UT at Vanimo and enhanced up to 40% at Niue 00-07 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressed to 25% at
      Mundaring, Hobart and Christchurch mostly during
      night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
      mostly between 00-09 UT.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Feb    16    Near predicted monthly values 
24 Feb     5    Depressions to 30% at times at higher latitudes. 
                Near predicted monthly values generally at low 
                and mid latitudes. 
25 Feb    10    Depressions to 30% at times at higher latitudes. 
                Near predicted monthly values generally at low 
                and mid latitudes. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Feb
Speed: 638 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:   236000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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