[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 February 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 23 10:35:19 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z FEBRUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 FEBRUARY - 25 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Feb: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Feb 24 Feb 25 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Feb: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 22 Feb : A K
Australian Region 12 32333411
Darwin 11 32232412
Learmonth 13 32333421
Culgoora 10 32233311
Camden 12 42332312
Canberra 12 32333411
Hobart 12 32333411
Casey(Ant) 16 4-433322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Feb :
Canberra 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Learmonth 7 (Quiet)
Culgoora 12 (Quiet)
Hobart 54 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 17 3434 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Feb 12 Unsettled
24 Feb 20 active
25 Feb 16 active
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Feb Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
24 Feb Normal Normal-Fair Fair
25 Feb Normal Normal-Fair Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Feb 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced to 30% 14-20
UT at Vanimo and enhanced up to 40% at Niue 00-07 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressed to 25% at
Mundaring, Hobart and Christchurch mostly during
night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
mostly between 00-09 UT.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Feb 16 Near predicted monthly values
24 Feb 5 Depressions to 30% at times at higher latitudes.
Near predicted monthly values generally at low
and mid latitudes.
25 Feb 10 Depressions to 30% at times at higher latitudes.
Near predicted monthly values generally at low
and mid latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Feb
Speed: 638 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 236000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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